Professional Grade: Tough lineup decisions
Fantasy football 2007 is here! And with it comes the scoreboard-watching, trash-talking, tough-lineup-decision-agonizing weekly grind that makes our game great.
We're not only experts, analysts, prognosticators, if you will, we're players, too, going through the same triumphs and tribulations as you in our own leagues each week. Sure, it might look easy for us to advise you who to start, who to sit on a weekly basis, but when it comes down to it, isn't it nice to know those very same recommendations we make are ones that will make or break our teams, too?
That's where I come in.
Each week, I'm here to provide you a window into the brains of the pundits in the GMC Professional Grade League. Our big boys (and girls -- no, I didn't forget you, Stephania!) are all there, and happy to share their thoughts regarding their tough weekly lineup decisions, as we duke it out head-to-head for the much-coveted title of "Football Overlord" (note: might not be officially recognized company title).
So while you might think you had it tough making that Week 1 call between Philip Rivers, your top-drafted QB facing the stout Bears defense, and Ben Roethlisberger, your late-round gem but one who scares the dickens out of you as a starter, think about how Scott Engel must have felt. Going into Week 1, he ranked the pair three spots apart -- Roethlisberger higher, at No. 12 -- closest of any of our six experts!
Engel isn't too keen on Rivers -- not this week, at least -- noting his primary role on Sunday will be game manager, trying merely to minimize errors. By comparison, he's calling for a rebound season from "Big Ben" to begin right here.
"If the Browns come out looking to stop the run, Roethlisberger will challenge their secondary early and often, especially as Santonio Holmes stretches the field," said Engel. "He'll have solid protection, time to throw, and can spread the ball around easily. Roethlisberger is healthy, focused, and a solid start in the season opener."
But faced with a decision on Holmes, a preseason sensation, Matthew Berry was a bit more dubious. He's calling for an early lead from the Steelers and therefore a greater commitment to the run, factors that plopped Holmes on his bench for whom else but Marshawn Lynch. Now, Berry long has been a pro-Lynch kinda guy; he picked the Bills rookie ahead of guys like Carson Palmer and Brandon Jacobs in the draft and offered no objection to my tabbing him president of the "Marshawn Lynch fan club" (by the way, this actually nets a Google result!). Still, Berry had a good explanation for his decision.
"I will always start a running back over a wide receiver in a flex position where you don't have points per reception," said Berry, noting that Holmes would have gotten the nod -- or at least a long look -- in a "PPR" league.
That goes to show you, know your league's scoring system! I can't stress that enough. Our league doesn't use points per reception, going instead by ESPN standard scoring, but PPR formats can significantly alter ranks, especially at running back.
Speaking of that running back position, could there have been anything more frustrating this preseason than Cam Cameron's nightmarish proclamation that Jesse Chatman, deemed overweight for the NFL in 2006, actually might be his starter? Such a development demonstrates why draft results become irrelevant the moment the last pick is made. We picked our players in early August, back when Ronnie Brown was a virtual lock for all the carries in Miami. Stephania Bell picked him 14th, right in line with most rankings, early drafts and even our average draft results (he's now 15th overall).
Now, as Bell claims the pick "didn't look so smart in hindsight," she's faced with the tough decision of whether to trust Cameron at his word that Brown is his starter for Week 1. Chatman is going to be a factor, taking some of the luster of Brown as an early-week option, at least until we get a sense of his usage. Nevertheless, Bell is confident in Brown's workload and his matchup against a weak Redskins defense, and she shares my opinion on the purpose of Cameron's whole running back charade.
"[To] light a fire under Brown's derriere," said Bell, who stood tall on Brown in light of respectable fallback receivers Jerricho Cotchery and Devery Henderson. "Go out and show me that you deserve this job because it's not going to get handed to you."
That's Week 1 for you, folks. Pressed with decisions on the hazy lineup spots -- like who's the backup running back in Denver, for another -- you've got to make a call, stick with it and if your speculation was wrong, hey, at least there's Week 2 to make it right.
That's how Eric Karabell viewed things with Thomas Jones, limited for much of the preseason with a calf injury and facing rumors Leon Washington could be a factor in Week 1. Health can be a much tougher thing to gauge, even with the NFL's new guidelines for injury reports, but Karabell -- bold as he is -- doesn't worry about Jones' missed time.
"Had [Jones'] calf injury occurred in October, he wouldn't have missed a game," said Karabell. "Preseason stats and workload have very little to do with fantasy once the real games start."
Granted, the best fallback option for Karabell -- another "RBs-first" man when it comes to flex spots -- was Packers rookie Brandon Jackson. Jackson, though, is coming off a concussion that limited him late in camp, and he's quite a bit less proven a player. Beyond that, Chris Chambers and Greg Jennings lurked on the bench among receivers. Nope, no reason to panic on Jones. At least, not if you lack an exceptional alternative.
Of course, Karabell was mindful of that, noting, "Now that I look at my running back depth, I think I'd better acquire more!"
" Fantasy owners hate running back-by-committee situations, and among them, the Cowboys' two-headed duo of Marion Barber III and Julius Jones -- or is it Jones and Barber? -- has been a tough one to read this preseason. Barber was the goal-line machine last season, but all signs point to Jones being more involved in 2007. Nate Ravitz, though, doesn't worry about a potential loss of touchdowns from Barber.
"I think Barber gets more touches than people think, and I don't want him on the bench when he scores two touchdowns, as he did at New York last season," said Ravitz. "Barber -- until proven otherwise -- is an every-week start for me."
Sure enough, Ravitz is dead on, as Barber scampered for 76 yards and two scores in Week 13. Of course, he failed to mention the then-sophomore managed a paltry 29 yards and no scores against those same Giants six weeks earlier in Dallas. The game is, again, in Dallas, and sorry, Nate, but for my Giants' sakes, I hope you're wrong!
" Howie Schwab, concerned about Randy Moss' hamstring issues and Tom Brady's tendency to spread the ball around, opted to sit the veteran receiver as a wait-and-see, scouting type decision. That put his No. 2 receiver spot to a toss-up between Isaac Bruce and Kevin Curtis and, expecting the Eagles to beat the Packers, Schwab tabbed Curtis. Such a move isn't that shocking; Howie's also the man so bold as to pick Deion Branch a round ahead of Moss, forecasting a huge breakout year from the Seahawk.
" I'm probably one of the biggest believers in Mike Furrey being for real, perhaps a result of being skeptical that Calvin Johnson's NFL impact is immediate, but in talking with Furrey's owner, Ken Daube, I discovered I'm not alone! In one of the bolder moves of the week, Daube sat starting RB Jamal Lewis and solid WRs Mark Clayton and Laveranues Coles, all to tab Furrey his flex player. How about that for gutsy!
"One -- that's how many receivers had more receptions than Mike Furrey last season," said Daube. "So, while others are enamored with the impact that Calvin Johnson will have on 'Air [Mike] Martz's' offense onslaught, I am not willing to discount the incredible level of performance that Furrey yielded last year until Johnson actually overtakes Furrey on the depth chart."
As a note, you Johnson owners: Good prospect or not, he's likely the Lions' No. 3 receiver for Week 1, and apparently neither Daube nor I are expecting much.
Daube did offer one caveat, though: "In fairness to Clayton, had he been fully healthy, he likely would have gotten the nod over Furrey this week."
" Among the more interesting sits of the week: Joe Horn, despite his facing a Vikings team that tied for the most passing yards allowed per game in 2006 (238.6). Nando Di Fino, showing no concerns for Clinton Portis' knee problems, or the prospect of Ladell Betts pressing Portis for carries, chose to keep Horn on his bench despite calling the Falcons receiver a good draft-day value and being fond of his Week 1 matchup.
"I'm not starting him because I have a little worry in the back of my mind that maybe Horn is getting old, or maybe Joey Harrington will like Roddy White, Michael Jenkins and Laurent Robinson better than Horn," said Di Fino. "Worst-case scenario is that he has a huge Week 1 and I start him next week or trade him to a desperate Karabell."
Sorry, Nando, while it's true Karabell is a big believer in Horn -- he ranked him 23rd this week -- I hear he's only hot on the trail for your running backs!
Tough draw for me in Week 1, facing Christopher Harris' monster running-back tandem of Larry Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew, and his stud wide receivers Torry Holt and Lee Evans. Still, what's most interesting about the matchup is Harris actually owns the two quarterbacks I have in another important league, both of them (typical) starters: Jake Delhomme and Vince Young (it's a two-QB league). Come to think of it, I have both Holt and Evans on that team, too! Hmmm ... Something rotten in the state of Denmark?
Faced with the prospect of starting either quarterback, I wasn't wild about my chances in the other league, and it doesn't seem Harris is pleased, either, at least at that position.
"It's not a good matchup for Young," said Harris. "He had a three-interception game against the Jags last season. But he's also a year older, has a year more experience, and I think Tennessee will run a sizable proportion of its offense out of the shotgun, which is where [Young] is best. His numbers were much better out of the 'gun last year: 14 points better in quarterback rating, six more yards per carry , better yards-per-attempt, etc."
Best of luck to you, Christopher, and at least I can take solace knowing that a beating here means success for me in the other league. Given the choice -- which fortunately (or is it unfortunately?) I didn't have to make -- I'd have tabbed Young, too. So did four of our six experts.
My tough choice: With Warrick Dunn starting for the Falcons, killing my Jerious Norwood sleeper pick at flex, that spot boiled down to Reggie Brown or Vincent Jackson, each among my favorite breakout candidates for 2007. I tabbed the aforementioned Rivers a bust, so Jackson fits the bill as well, but what also makes Brown so appealing to me is that Donovan McNabb's knee issues will only mean he continues to air things out. I'll take McNabb's go-to guy any day, even if it means benching a potential red-zone machine in Jackson.
Besides, if I'm wrong, I can always fix it in Week 2!
Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.
